AXP Q2 2025: Adds 3.1M New Cards, Drives 9% Revenue Growth
- Premium Product Innovation: The management’s track record of refreshing premium cards has reportedly driven significant customer growth – with previous refreshes nearly doubling the customer base – and the upcoming U.S. Platinum card refresh is expected to add even more value, supporting fee pricing power and enhancing customer loyalty.
- Robust New Account Growth and Revenue Performance: The addition of over 3.1 million new cards this quarter (including 1.5 million from the U.S. Consumer segment) combined with 9% year-over-year revenue growth and strong net card fee performance underpins a consistent, sustainable upward trajectory.
- Innovative Partnerships & Forward-Looking Strategies: The company’s strategic engagement with partners like Coinbase for stablecoin initiatives demonstrates its proactive approach to integrating innovative technology, potentially unlocking new cross-border transaction avenues and diversified revenue streams.
- Competition in the premium card space: Management’s discussion of the upcoming Platinum refresh faces scrutiny regarding pricing power as competitors continue to innovate and launch similar value propositions, potentially eroding fee revenue growth over time.
- Slower travel-related spending: The noted softening in airline and lodging spend in the Q&A could indicate vulnerability in key segments, which may dampen overall card member spending and revenue momentum.
- Increased upfront costs from product refreshes: The anticipated rise in variable customer engagement expenses—due to the timing and structure of the Platinum refresh—may pressure margins and delay the full impact of fee increases on the P&L, thereby affecting EPS growth in the near term.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +9.3% | Total Revenue increased from $16,333 million in Q2 2024 to $17,856 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a robust multi‑segment performance; this growth builds on previous period trends driven by higher discount revenue, net card fees, and improved interest income, underscoring strong consumer and business engagement. |
U.S. Consumer Services | N/A (contribution of $8,553 million in Q2 2025) | U.S. Consumer Services contributed $8,553 million in Q2 2025, reinforcing overall revenue strength; its performance is consistent with prior period gains driven by increased consumer spending and enhanced card member activity. |
Commercial Services | N/A (recorded at $4,212 million in Q2 2025) | Commercial Services delivered $4,212 million in Q2 2025, demonstrating continuity in revenue growth driven by expanding billed business and premium card portfolio performance seen in earlier periods. |
International Card Services | N/A (recorded at $3,232 million in Q2 2025) | International Card Services recorded $3,232 million, supported by strong international card member engagement and spending, a trend that builds on prior period improvements in FX‑adjusted billed business and geographic expansion initiatives. |
Global Merchant and Network Services | N/A (recorded at $1,933 million in Q2 2025) | Global Merchant and Network Services posted $1,933 million, highlighting diversified revenue streams and improved service fee performance; this result follows earlier period efforts to rebalance network revenues and manage alternative payment solution volumes. |
Corporate & Other | Downside: $(74) million | Corporate & Other reported a minor negative contribution of $(74) million in Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in non-core areas, as contrasted with prior periods where adjustments in deferred compensation and investment losses had similarly impacted performance. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Growth | FY 2025 | 8% to 10% | 8% to 10% | no change |
EPS | FY 2025 | $15 to $15.50 | $15.00 to $15.50 | no change |
Operating Expenses | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | mid-single digits | no prior guidance |
Card Fee Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | moderate in Q3 and Q4 2025 with potential early 2026 acceleration | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Growth | Q2 2025 | 8% to 10% | 9.3% (from 16,333To 17,856) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Premium Product Innovation and Refresh Strategy | Emphasized across Q3 2024 ( ), Q4 2024 ( ) and Q1 2025 ( ) with details on successful product refreshes and innovations for premium cards. | In Q2 2025, the discussion continued with a strong focus on premium products and an upcoming Platinum refresh ( ). | Consistent focus with renewed emphasis on differentiated benefits and a high-impact Platinum refresh – reinforcing a proven growth engine. |
Continuous Technology Investment and Product Refreshes | Addressed in Q3 2024 with plans for further investments ( ), in Q4 2024 with ongoing refresh cadence and technology spending ( ) and in Q1 2025 with commitment to long-term upgrades ( ). | Q2 2025 reiterated these investments with clear insights on timing (expenses incurred before revenue recognition) and sustained product refresh strategy ( ). | Steady emphasis on building technology and regularly refreshing the product lineup while managing integration timing challenges. |
Robust New Account Growth and Premium/Millennial-Gen Z Customer Acquisition | Discussed robust growth in Q3 2024 ( ), record acquisitions and strong Millennial/Gen Z appeal in Q4 2024 ( ), and strong fee-paying account growth in Q1 2025 ( ). | Q2 2025 again reported strong new account numbers and highlighted growing spend among Millennials and Gen Z, reinforcing premium acquisition efforts ( ). | Consistent strong performance with continuous emphasis on premium and younger demographics as key drivers of future growth. |
Fintech Partnerships and Stablecoin Initiatives | Not mentioned in Q3 2024, Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 (N/A). | Introduced in Q2 2025 through discussion of a partnership with Coinbase and exploration of stablecoin use for cross‑border transactions ( ). | New topic emergence with potential to impact digital payments and rewards, adding a fresh strategic dimension. |
SME Ecosystem Expansion and International Market Growth | International market growth discussed in Q3 2024 ( ); SME expansion and international performance were detailed in Q4 2024 ( ) and Q1 2025 saw significant SME platform integration and international spending growth ( ). | Q2 2025 featured emphasis on SME spending trends and strong international growth with double-digit FX‑adjusted increases ( ). | Continued emphasis; international markets remain a high-growth area while SME capabilities are being refined despite some billing challenges. |
Net Card Fee Growth and Revenue Performance | Q3 2024 saw 18% growth with subscription‑like revenues ( ); Q4 2024 noted 19% growth and record revenue levels ( ); Q1 2025 reported record net fee growth and stable revenue performance ( ). | Q2 2025 reported record net card fees up 20% YoY and revenue of $17.9B with full‑year guidance maintained ( ). | Robust and steady growth across periods with record fee levels, though Q2 hints at moderated growth in upcoming quarters. |
Competitive Pressure in Premium and SME Segments | Q4 2024 discussed competitive dynamics with specific mentions of mergers and competitors ( ); Q1 2025 alluded to strong demand and resilient customer profiles ( ); Q3 2024 did not explicitly mention it (N/A). | Q2 2025 explicitly addressed competitive pressures in both segments, noting strong external competition and the need to continuously refresh offerings ( ). | Heightened emphasis on competitive dynamics now, signaling increased external pressures that may drive further innovation and strategic adjustments. |
Macroeconomic and Revenue Volatility Risks | Addressed indirectly in Q3 2024 with stable consumer spending and resilient performance ( ); Q4 2024 mentioned revenue guidance and cautious optimism ( ); Q1 2025 provided detailed discussion of unemployment assumptions and spending resilience ( ). | Q2 2025 stressed a resilient customer base and solid revenue growth amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, with detailed guidance and reserve adjustments ( ). | Reassuring continuity – risks are acknowledged across periods but consistently managed through strategic planning and adaptable spending adjustments. |
Increased Cost Pressures and Integration Challenges from Product Refreshes | Q1 2025 discussed cost pressures on SMEs and the challenges of integrating refreshes ( ); Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 provided limited explicit discussion on these challenges (N/A in Q4; Q3 focused on benefits). | Q2 2025 offered clear insights into timing issues (expenses incurred before benefits materialize) and expected post‑refresh cost impacts, particularly for the Platinum card ( ). | Consistent awareness – while integration challenges and cost pressures are a recurring consideration, Q2 2025 provides a more detailed operational outlook. |
Declining Organic Spending and Shifts in Customer Engagement | Q3 2024 mentioned decreased organic spend among small businesses and strong engagement from new card members ( ); Q4 2024 highlighted modest organic growth challenges in SMEs and strong holiday engagement ( ); Q1 2025 reported stable overall engagement with slight SME spend upticks ( ). | Q2 2025 did not explicitly flag declining organic spending but noted stable overall spending with ongoing strength in key segments, including high retention ( ). | Mixed sentiment – while some segments (like SMEs) continue to face organic spend challenges, overall customer engagement remains robust and may improve over time. |
-
Earnings Guidance
Q: How will revenue growth be sustained?
A: Management reiterated guidance of 8–10% revenue growth and emphasized that despite modest slowdowns in some spend categories, strong customer engagement and the upcoming platinum refresh will help maintain a robust EPS trajectory. -
Platinum Refresh Value
Q: Will fee increases add value?
A: They confirmed that any fee increase from the platinum refresh is accompanied by significantly enhanced benefits, mirroring past refreshes to ensure clear customer value. -
Pricing Dynamics
Q: Can pricing power hold amid competition?
A: Leadership stressed that as long as superior value is delivered, pricing power remains strong, with competitive activity benefiting the overall premium market. -
Acquisition Mix Impact
Q: Is the fee-paying acquisition mix changing EPS?
A: They noted that the acquisition mix remains stable at roughly 70% fee-paying cards, with adjustments in variable expenses keeping EPS guidance moderated. -
Spending Trends
Q: What drives stable spending and SMB trends?
A: Management highlighted consistent core spending, with SMB revenue resilient despite cautious billings, and clarified that issues like the Amazon portfolio have minimal impact. -
International Growth
Q: How is international acceptance performing?
A: They reported double-digit growth internationally with focused market coverage and expanding merchant acceptance driving long-term potential. -
Refresh Expense Timing
Q: When will platinum refresh expenses hit the P&L?
A: Expenses related to the refresh are expected to increase with card member services beginning in Q4, while fee changes are gradually recognized over a 12‐month cycle. -
Rewards Impact
Q: Should we worry about discount revenue net of rewards?
A: Management explained that despite modest changes in discount revenue when netting rewards, the overall VCE-to-revenue ratio is managed to ensure premium profit outcomes. -
Acquisition Cost
Q: Are acquisition costs rising for premium cards?
A: They acknowledged increased marketing spend due to heightened competition but maintained that the robust demand for premium products yields attractive returns. -
Competitive Refresh Outlook
Q: How will the new platinum refresh fare competitively?
A: Drawing on historical success, they believe the refresh will perform well and remains less contentious than similar launches a decade ago, reinforcing their market leadership. -
Lounge Overcrowding
Q: How will lounge overcrowding be managed?
A: The team detailed efforts to mitigate crowding by offering priority service, expanding lounge capacities, and introducing innovative satellite locations. -
Stablecoin Strategy
Q: What is AXP’s stance on stablecoins?
A: They see stablecoins as a valuable tool for cross-border transactions, complementing existing systems without displacing fiat, as evidenced by their strategic partnership with Coinbase.